Football betting
Poisson score grid and Asian-handicap ladder, Premier League xG, expected points, fixtures and Polymarket 1X2.
1X2 & expected points
Price a match to fill the book.
| Home | Draw | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Edge is (your price / market − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Line | Home | Edge | Away | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
| Line | Over | Edge | Under | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
Home goals down the side, away across the top. Highlight is the modal score. Edge vs Polymarket when live.
| Waiting. |
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Match bets
Off: match bets do not run.
Value backs vs Polymarket. Proposed size is 2% of the wallet. In monitor, Send places that row from Dublin.
| # | Kickoff | Match | Market | Selection | Your | Ask | Edge | Qty | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading. | ||||||||||
Upcoming Premier League
λ from each side’s recent HxG / xGA. Click a row to load the pricer.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | λ H | λ A | Poly H |
|---|
xG table and expected points
xPts is 3·P(win)+P(draw) from this engine, using each match’s HxG and AxG from football-data.co.uk.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts−xPts | xG | xGA | xGD | GF | GA |
|---|
Results with xG and closing odds
| Date | Home | Away | Score | HxG | AxG | B365 H | D | A |
|---|
Polymarket vs model
Model uses xG ratings. Edge is (your prob / Polymarket − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Match | Poly H | Model H | Edge H | Poly D | Model D | Poly A | Model A |
|---|
Data sources
Wired feeds are pulled by this local server. The others are documented so you can plug them in (API keys, IMPECT licence, Understat scrape).
Arb
Buy every outcome of one market at best ask when the sum, after taker fee, is under $1. Only fireable clips that settle within 7 days. Intra-market, not directional. Partial fills strand inventory.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Kind | Legs | Cost | Edge | Settles (London) | Fire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Archive
Monitor highlights and live attempts are stored here. Reload keeps the history.
| Time | Kind | Market | Cost | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty. | |||||
MarketMaking
Placeholder. Two-sided quotes on selected Polymarket books. Off / monitor / live is stored. No book yet.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Bid | Ask | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No quotes yet. | |||
WalletFollow
Placeholder. Copy-trade a watched wallet’s Polymarket prints. Off / monitor / live is stored. Needs a watch list before orders.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Wallet | Side | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No watch list yet. | |||
Insider
Copy wallets whose resolved bets that were not near-certainties win far more than the prices they paid. z is (wins − Σp) / √Σp(1−p). Fire when a passing wallet still holds a mid-price position. Skip two-sided hedges and in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Wallet | Win % | z | Side | Entry | Ask | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Flow
Whale vs retail on two-outcome books. Small = under $50. Large taker buys on one outcome, lots of small maker sells, large prints most of the tape. Only markets that settle within 7 days. Skip in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Whale | Large % | Large $ | Small $ | Small sells | Yes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Follow the money
High-volume two-outcome books as they start. fair = recent Yes notional / (Yes+No). Clip when live Yes is cheap versus that. Skip in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair | Vol Y / N | Edge | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | ||||||
Near-certainties
Buy 95–99.5¢ with ≤ 7 days left, if it still looks +EV. Skip in-play sports, tight crypto, and anything above 99.5¢. Resolution risk is not zero.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Side | Ask | Hours | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||
Biases
Fade retail longshot Yes on “Will X happen?” books. Buy No. Only markets that settle inside 7 days. Highlighted rows are fireable. Skip in-play sports and military tails.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair Y | Buy | Ask | Settles | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Yield
Longer-dated longshot Yes sold (buy No) when the premium over fair annualizes above the threshold. Default 12%. Fair Yes = posted Yes / haircut (default 1.40). Skip in-play and military tails.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair Y | Buy No | Yield | Settles | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Lead-lag
Binance spot vs Polymarket 5m/15m Up or Down (BTC ETH SOL XRP DOGE BNB). If Binance prints a real move and Polymarket has not caught up, buy the lagging leg. C++ engine. Anti-spoof rules below.
Off: the strategy does not run.
- Binance last must sit inside the book (not a single print through the spread).
- Spread < 8 bps. ≥8 trades and asset min notional in the last 2s (BTC $100k, ETH $40k, others $8–15k).
- 2s VWAP and last must agree on the sign of the move (no wick).
- Move ≥10 bps (5m) / 15 bps (15m), but flash moves >80 bps are rejected.
- Fair from remaining-time Brownian bridge vs window open. Gap vs PM ask ≥ 7¢, held 550ms.
- No trades in the first 8s or last 22s of the window. Cooldown 8s per asset/side.
| Market | Asset | BN bps | Fair Up | Buy | Ask | Gap | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | ||||||||
Hop, bankroll, blockers
No private keys on this box. Do not import the trading EOA into a browser wallet. Do not POST /order from GB or US.