Football betting
Poisson score grid and Asian-handicap ladder for Premier League. Backs where the model beats Polymarket. Overround on a 1X2 book is 1/H + 1/D + 1/A and is usually above 1.00 — that extra is the juice of the whole book.
1X2 & expected points
Price a match to fill the book.
| Home | Draw | Away | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Edge is (your price / market − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Line | Home | Edge | Away | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
| Line | Over | Edge | Under | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | ||||
Home goals down the side, away across the top. Highlight is the modal score. Edge vs Polymarket when live.
| Waiting. |
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
| Selection | Odds | Prob | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting. | |||
Match bets
Off: match bets do not run.
Value backs vs Polymarket. Proposed size is 2% of the wallet. In monitor, Send places that row from Dublin.
| # | Kickoff | Match | Market | Selection | Your | Ask | Edge | Exp $ | Qty | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading. | |||||||||||
Control parameters
These filter match-bet clips. Apply writes to Dublin. Edge is (your probability / market − 1).
Default is every +EV clip. Raise min edge to hide noise.
Book signals
Overround is the sum of implied probabilities. A fair 1X2 is 1.00. Typical books sit at 1.02–1.08.
Upcoming Premier League
λ from each side’s recent HxG / xGA. Click a row to load the pricer.
| Kickoff | Home | Away | λ H | λ A | Poly H |
|---|
xG table and expected points
xPts is 3·P(win)+P(draw) from this engine, using each match’s HxG and AxG from football-data.co.uk.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts−xPts | xG | xGA | xGD | GF | GA |
|---|
Results with xG and closing odds
| Date | Home | Away | Score | HxG | AxG | B365 H | D | A |
|---|
Polymarket vs model
Model uses xG ratings. Edge is (your prob / Polymarket − 1). Positive = value on the back.
| Match | Poly H | Model H | Edge H | Poly D | Model D | Poly A | Model A |
|---|
Data sources
Wired feeds are pulled by this local server. The others are documented so you can plug them in (API keys, IMPECT licence, Understat scrape).
Arb
Buy every outcome of one market at best ask when the sum, after taker fee, is under $1. Only fireable clips that settle within 7 days. Intra-market, not directional. Partial fills strand inventory.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Kind | Legs | Cost | Edge | Exp $ | Settles (London) | Fire | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | ||||||||
Archive
Monitor highlights and live attempts are stored here. Reload keeps the history.
| Time | Kind | Market | Cost | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empty. | |||||
MarketMaking
Placeholder. Two-sided quotes on selected Polymarket books. Off / monitor / live is stored. No book yet.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Bid | Ask | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No quotes yet. | |||
WalletFollow
Placeholder. Copy-trade a watched wallet’s Polymarket prints. Off / monitor / live is stored. Needs a watch list before orders.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Wallet | Side | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No watch list yet. | |||
Insider
Copy wallets whose resolved bets that were not near-certainties win far more than the prices they paid. z is (wins − Σp) / √Σp(1−p). Fire when a passing wallet still holds a mid-price position. Skip two-sided hedges and in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Wallet | Win % | z | Side | Entry | Ask | Edge | Exp $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||||
Flow
Whale vs retail on two-outcome books. Small = under $50. Large taker buys on one outcome, lots of small maker sells, large prints most of the tape. Only markets that settle within 7 days. Skip in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Whale | Large % | Large $ | Small $ | Small sells | Yes | Edge | Exp $ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||||
Follow the money
High-volume two-outcome books as they start. fair = recent Yes notional / (Yes+No). Clip when live Yes is cheap versus that. Skip in-play sports.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair | Vol Y / N | Edge | Exp $ | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Near-certainties
Buy 95–99.5¢ with ≤ 7 days left, if it still looks +EV. Skip in-play sports, tight crypto, and anything above 99.5¢. Resolution risk is not zero.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Side | Ask | Edge | Exp $ | Hours | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||
Biases
Fade retail longshot Yes on “Will X happen?” books. Buy No. Only markets that settle inside 7 days. Highlighted rows are fireable. Skip in-play sports and military tails.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair Y | Buy | Ask | Edge | Exp $ | Settles | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||||
Yield
Longer-dated longshot Yes sold (buy No) when the premium over fair annualizes above the threshold. Default 12%. Fair Yes = posted Yes / haircut (default 1.40). Skip in-play and military tails.
Off: the strategy does not run.
| Market | Yes | Fair Y | Buy No | Yield | Edge | Exp $ | Settles | 24h vol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | |||||||||
Lead-lag
Binance book mid vs Polymarket 5m/15m Up or Down (BTC ETH SOL XRP DOGE BNB). If Binance prints a real move and Polymarket has not caught up, buy the lagging leg. C++ engine. Anti-spoof rules below — they exist so a manipulator cannot print a fake tick on one venue to create a market on the other.
Off: the strategy does not run.
- Lead is Binance book mid, not last trade. A single printed tick through the spread is ignored.
- Two-sided book: spread < 8 bps, last inside the book, each side ≥ 25% of the asset min notional (BTC ~$2k/side).
- ≥2 prints in 5s. 5s VWAP must agree with the book mid on the sign of the move (no wick). Moves >25 bps also need tape notional.
- Move ≥10 bps (5m) / 15 bps (15m) on the mid. Flash moves >80 bps are rejected as likely spoof or air-pocket.
- Polymarket ask must be live CLOB (websocket or REST book), never Gamma last-trade. PM spread ≤ 8¢, ask size ≥ min, gap vs fair ≥ 7¢, held 550ms.
- No trades in the first 8s (open print) or last 22s (expiry games). Cooldown 8s per asset/side. Skip if PM already priced the move.
| Market | Asset | BN bps | Fair Up | Buy | Ask | Gap | Edge | Exp $ | Why | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. No scan. | ||||||||||
Performance
Wallet NAV over time since the $148.89 play-money start. Filter by strategy or event type. Monthly returns compound daily NAV changes, same layout as the dparadigm.live strategy pages.
Monthly returns
| No NAV history yet. |
By strategy
| Strategy | Fills | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| No fills yet. | |||
By event type
| Type | Fills | Stake | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| No fills yet. | |||
Hop, bankroll, blockers
No private keys on this box. Do not import the trading EOA into a browser wallet. Do not POST /order from GB or US.