strategies

McQueen

Chrome or Brave + MetaMask/Rabby. You sign; Dublin posts. Safari has no injected wallet.

Football betting

Poisson score grid and Asian-handicap ladder for Premier League. Backs where the model beats Polymarket. Overround on a 1X2 book is 1/H + 1/D + 1/A and is usually above 1.00 — that extra is the juice of the whole book.

Inputs

λ is expected goals, same as Main!CX3 / CY3.

Market 1X2 (Edge). Used to fit λ if the boxes above are empty.

1X2 & expected points

Home
Draw
Away
xPts H / A

Price a match to fill the book.

HomeDrawAway
Waiting.

Edge is (your price / market − 1). Positive = value on the back.

LineHomeEdgeAwayEdge
Waiting.
LineOverEdgeUnderEdge
Waiting.

Home goals down the side, away across the top. Highlight is the modal score. Edge vs Polymarket when live.

Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.
SelectionOddsProbEdge
Waiting.

Match bets

Off: match bets do not run.

Value backs vs Polymarket. Proposed size is 2% of the wallet. In monitor, Send places that row from Dublin.

Games
Value
Wallet
2% cap

#KickoffMatchMarket SelectionYourAskEdgeExp $ QtyStake
Loading.

Control parameters

These filter match-bet clips. Apply writes to Dublin. Edge is (your probability / market − 1).

Default is every +EV clip. Raise min edge to hide noise.

Book signals

Overround is the sum of implied probabilities. A fair 1X2 is 1.00. Typical books sit at 1.02–1.08.

Market overround
Model mass1.000
Implied H/D/A
Juice

Upcoming Premier League

λ from each side’s recent HxG / xGA. Click a row to load the pricer.

KickoffHomeAwayλ Hλ APoly H

xG table and expected points

xPts is 3·P(win)+P(draw) from this engine, using each match’s HxG and AxG from football-data.co.uk.

#TeamPPtsxPtsPts−xPts xGxGAxGDGFGA

Results with xG and closing odds

DateHomeAwayScore HxGAxGB365 HDA

Polymarket vs model

Model uses xG ratings. Edge is (your prob / Polymarket − 1). Positive = value on the back.

MatchPoly HModel HEdge H Poly DModel DPoly AModel A

Data sources

Wired feeds are pulled by this local server. The others are documented so you can plug them in (API keys, IMPECT licence, Understat scrape).

Arb

Buy every outcome of one market at best ask when the sum, after taker fee, is under $1. Only fireable clips that settle within 7 days. Intra-market, not directional. Partial fills strand inventory.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Arbs
Best edge
Engine

MarketKindLegsCostEdgeExp $Settles (London)Fire
Off. No scan.

Archive

Monitor highlights and live attempts are stored here. Reload keeps the history.

TimeKindMarketCostEdgeResult
Empty.

MarketMaking

Placeholder. Two-sided quotes on selected Polymarket books. Off / monitor / live is stored. No book yet.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Books
Inventory
Engineplaceholder

MarketBidAsk
No quotes yet.

WalletFollow

Placeholder. Copy-trade a watched wallet’s Polymarket prints. Off / monitor / live is stored. Needs a watch list before orders.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Wallets
Last print
Engineplaceholder

WalletSideSize
No watch list yet.

Insider

Copy wallets whose resolved bets that were not near-certainties win far more than the prices they paid. z is (wins − Σp) / √Σp(1−p). Fire when a passing wallet still holds a mid-price position. Skip two-sided hedges and in-play sports.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Insiders
Fireable
Best z

MarketWalletWin %zSideEntryAskEdgeExp $
Off. No scan.

Flow

Whale vs retail on two-outcome books. Small = under $50. Large taker buys on one outcome, lots of small maker sells, large prints most of the tape. Only markets that settle within 7 days. Skip in-play sports.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Clips
Fireable
Best large %
Updated

MarketWhaleLarge %Large $Small $Small sellsYesEdgeExp $
Off. No scan.

Follow the money

High-volume two-outcome books as they start. fair = recent Yes notional / (Yes+No). Clip when live Yes is cheap versus that. Skip in-play sports.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Clips
Fireable
Best edge
Updated

MarketYesFairVol Y / NEdgeExp $24h vol
Off. No scan.

Near-certainties

Buy 95–99.5¢ with ≤ 7 days left, if it still looks +EV. Skip in-play sports, tight crypto, and anything above 99.5¢. Resolution risk is not zero.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Clips
Cheapest
Updated
Horizon≤ 7d

MarketSideAskEdgeExp $Hours24h vol
Off. No scan.

Biases

Fade retail longshot Yes on “Will X happen?” books. Buy No. Only markets that settle inside 7 days. Highlighted rows are fireable. Skip in-play sports and military tails.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Clips
Fireable
Horizon≤ 7d

MarketYesFair YBuyAskEdgeExp $Settles24h vol
Off. No scan.

Yield

Longer-dated longshot Yes sold (buy No) when the premium over fair annualizes above the threshold. Default 12%. Fair Yes = posted Yes / haircut (default 1.40). Skip in-play and military tails.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Clips
Best yield
Threshold12%

MarketYesFair YBuy NoYieldEdgeExp $Settles24h vol
Off. No scan.

Lead-lag

Binance book mid vs Polymarket 5m/15m Up or Down (BTC ETH SOL XRP DOGE BNB). If Binance prints a real move and Polymarket has not caught up, buy the lagging leg. C++ engine. Anti-spoof rules below — they exist so a manipulator cannot print a fake tick on one venue to create a market on the other.

Off: the strategy does not run.

Modeoff
Windows
Fireable
Feeds

  • Lead is Binance book mid, not last trade. A single printed tick through the spread is ignored.
  • Two-sided book: spread < 8 bps, last inside the book, each side ≥ 25% of the asset min notional (BTC ~$2k/side).
  • ≥2 prints in 5s. 5s VWAP must agree with the book mid on the sign of the move (no wick). Moves >25 bps also need tape notional.
  • Move ≥10 bps (5m) / 15 bps (15m) on the mid. Flash moves >80 bps are rejected as likely spoof or air-pocket.
  • Polymarket ask must be live CLOB (websocket or REST book), never Gamma last-trade. PM spread ≤ 8¢, ask size ≥ min, gap vs fair ≥ 7¢, held 550ms.
  • No trades in the first 8s (open print) or last 22s (expiry games). Cooldown 8s per asset/side. Skip if PM already priced the move.
MarketAssetBN bpsFair UpBuyAskGapEdgeExp $Why
Off. No scan.

Performance

Wallet NAV over time since the $148.89 play-money start. Filter by strategy or event type. Monthly returns compound daily NAV changes, same layout as the dparadigm.live strategy pages.

NAV
Day P&L
Inception
Max DD

Monthly returns

No NAV history yet.

By strategy

StrategyFillsStakeP&L
No fills yet.

By event type

TypeFillsStakeP&L
No fills yet.

Hop, bankroll, blockers

No private keys on this box. Do not import the trading EOA into a browser wallet. Do not POST /order from GB or US.

AppMcQueen
Play moneyyes
Start bankroll$148.89
Dublin54.74.92.157
Loading.

Activity

Fills are bets that posted. Orders are every Send. Logs are engine messages. Errors are rejected trades. Alerts are websocket or NAV issues.

TimeStrategyTypeMarketSidePxSizeStake
No fills yet.
TimeStrategyStatusMarketPxSize
No orders yet.
TimeLevelStrategyMessage
No logs yet.
TimeStrategyMarketError
No rejected trades.
TimeLevelAlert
No live alerts.